This is an edited version of the opening remarks GIC CEO Lim Chow Kiat gave at GIC Insights 2025 on 18 November 2025.

The theme for our Forum today—History Awaits—reminds us that “The future is up for grabs.” The future is uncertain but brimming with possibilities. History is being made, whether through artificial intelligence (AI), a new world order, climate change, tokenisation, the space frontier, or all the above.

At the heart of this theme is uncertainty—the sense of not knowing with confidence what comes next. Uncertainty has always been part and parcel of investing and doing business.

But what’s new is that uncertainty itself has become unusually uncertain. It is amplified by three related forces—the three Cs: complexity, the speed and magnitude of change, and collective emotions.

Complexity

The first force is complexity, which is the state of a system with numerous, interconnected parts and relationships. Greater complexity means greater uncertainty because a shift in one part can trigger consequences across many others, often in ways that are difficult to foresee.

Consider the semiconductor supply chain. There are at least five inter-dependent stages: (1) chip design; (2) manufacturing inputs; (3) fabrication; (4) assembly, testing, and packaging (ATP); and (5) distribution and integration. Each stage involves tens, if not hundreds of companies across the world. Chips and their components might cross borders 70 times or more before reaching their end user¹. The high degree of inter-dependency creates more complexity and vulnerability, especially given the geographical concentration of some activities. A disruption anywhere can ripple across the entire supply chain, as we have seen again recently².

Layered atop this operational complexity are non-economic forces—factors that do not conform to market logic, which make financial analysis difficult. Amongst them, geopolitics takes the crown. Driven by either genuine national security concerns or protectionist reasons, it is contorting both demand and supply through interventions in supply chains, market access, technology use, and investment flows.

The competing strategies by the US and China in their AI rivalry are particularly instructive. The superpowers are locked in a race to achieve frontier technology and market share. The US is seen as leading in zero-to-one innovation, while China excels in rapid, broad-based adoption—its AI+ policy. We have seen a similar pattern in climate tech: US first-mover innovation, followed by Chinese dominance in the markets of EVs, renewables, and batteries. Understanding these strategies may inform future interventions.

Speed and Scale of Change

Next is the fast and furious speed and scale of change, which too is adding to uncertainty. Rapid and large shifts disrupt forecasting, render established models less reliable, and complicate decision-making.

AI, again, illustrates this well. We are aware of the rapid adoption rate—in less than three years, over a billion people have used generative AI tools, which is likely an underestimate. Amongst enterprises, adoption had already reached 78% in 2024³. The potential return on investment (ROI) is another factor yet to be fully considered. At such pace, there is little time to stabilise processes or models.

Beyond adoption, we are seeing step-changes in how AI is being used. It has already transformed frontier science—whether in protein folding, humanoids, novel materials, brain-computer interfaces, and more. In the corporate world, agentic AI promises exponential process improvements, moving far beyond familiar use cases like chatbots, search, content creation, or coding. Huge potential gains are spawning a wave of AI-native start-ups; some already reporting over 10% revenue growth month-on-month⁴. This raises an important question: is incumbency a boon or bane? In other words, does their access to customers and data give incumbents enough of an edge to overcome their typical slowness to adapt?

The hardware side is just as dynamic. AI chip development cycles are now measured in months, rather than years. Each new generation brings exponential performance gains, but also a faster replacement cycle. The useful life of most AI chips is shrinking to five years or less⁵, creating obsolescence risk and major uncertainty for the AI capex boom. More efficient AI could also threaten the value of existing stacks.

A further complication is that the pace of change is uneven across the economy. Many have talked about a ‘K-shaped’ economy—or a widening divergence in outcomes between capital and labour, big and small firms, or technology and non-technology sectors. In the US, some economists estimate that investments in IT accounted for 92% of GDP growth⁶ in the first half of 2025. This means non-IT investments saw little growth. This divergence is likely to intensify.

Collective Emotions

Lastly, collective emotions add a powerful layer of uncertainty. Fear, greed, excitement, anxiety influence investor behaviour. They add to uncertainty by creating feedback loops that amplify emotional reactions, bias judgment, drive herd behaviour, and hinder rational decision-making.

Collective emotions are powered by price momentum, leverage, and social trends. In recent years, easy financial conditions, the popularisation of trading platforms, and the rise of social media have intensified these effects, exemplified by the meme stock phenomenon.

The collective psychology of investors often follows a recurring cycle of five phases: (1) optimism; (2) greed and euphoria; (3) anxiety and denial once the market turns, (4) fear and panic; and (5) despair and capitulation. While the timing and sequence are not always exact, and the pattern is often clear only in hindsight, it is still useful to recognise its manifestations.

Today, we are seeing clear signs of an AI-driven emotional cycle, likely of phases (1) and (2). Investors are captivated by a mind-boggling technology which may produce equally mind-boggling fortunes. Hence, we hear many pondering if “This time it is different”—the five most dangerous words in finance. Yet anxiety is in play too, as seen in negative headlines and market gyrations. Dot-com era references are resurfacing, especially the historical market swing of “up 700% down 70%.” These dramatic swings only add to the uncertainty.

How We Respond

With such heightened uncertainty, how do we move forward? Let me share briefly a few principles that anchor GIC’s approach:

First, clarity of purpose is essential. Knowing ourselves well—our mission, values, goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, strengths and weaknesses—is as important as knowing the world well. This keeps us focused and disciplined.

Second, prepare, not predict: we are unable to forecast the path of these feedback loops with precision. Instead, we scenario-plan and stress-test. Resilience is built by preparing for a range of outcomes, not by betting on a single future. This also means diversification, which is the only free lunch in finance. Here, we must be particularly careful about broad labels. Traditional classifications may no longer reflect the true risk/return characteristics of the assets in question.

Hence, third, go granular: focus asset-by-asset to manage the wider dispersion resulting from heightened uncertainty. This is not just about avoiding the left tail but also owning optionality for the right tail. This may require building up small, high-risk exposures with large upsides, typically found in early-stage ventures.

Fourth, agility. While keeping our long-term approach, we maintain liquidity and flexibility to be able to respond to market dislocations and spot under-appreciated opportunities early. We avoid binary decisions and false precision, preferring to scale our exposures thoughtfully and as opportunities emerge.

Finally, reliability reduces uncertainty. GIC is a reliable partner. We strive for win-win, take a long view, and do our homework so we can respond promptly and add value. We are also a respectful partner and treat our partners consistently across time and space. This is something we are proud of.

The future is shaped by the choices we make today, especially when uncertainty is at its highest. History awaits those who act with purpose, prepare well, and stay agile.