This is an edited summary of a fireside chat with JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon at GIC Insights 2025 on 18 November 2025.

US exceptionalism under pressure

The future of US exceptionalism remains a hotly debated topic among investors. The US economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, returning to and even surpassing pre-pandemic levels of activity. This rebound was driven by an extraordinary fiscal response, including over US$1 trillion in public assistance at the federal and state level in 2023 alone¹. It boosted consumer spending, corporate profits, and asset prices, contributing to a 2.8% GDP growth rate the following year².

Yet, many analysts and official reports highlight persistent structural challenges beneath these headline figures. Wage growth³ has lagged inflation for much of the past two decades⁴, life expectancy has declined since 2019⁵, and many Americans continue to face barriers to quality healthcare⁶ and education⁷. According to Dimon, while the US excels in fostering innovation and entrepreneurship, enduring socio-economic disparities raise questions about the country’s future prospects.

Monetary policy’s unintended consequences

Monetary policy has played a pivotal role in shaping the current environment. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s response to the pandemic was marked by record levels of quantitative easing, peaking in early 2022⁸, alongside historically low interest rate—measures typically reserved for periods of low inflation or deflation.

However, inflation was already surging, with the Consumer Price Index reaching multi-decade highs⁹. The Fed initially characterised this inflation as transitory, but as pressures persisted, interest rates were eventually raised to cool the economy. Yet quantitative easing continued for some time, resulting in one of the largest interest rate mismatches in history and leaving the Fed’s balance sheet with substantial mark-to-market losses. The persistence of accommodative policy, Dimon argued, highlights the risk of groupthink and the challenges inherent in unwinding extraordinary measures.

Credit markets: Signs of strain after years of stability

After more than a decade of minimal credit losses and abundant liquidity, credit markets are beginning to show signs of vulnerability. Dimon warned that elevated asset prices, narrow spreads, and an increase in episodic defaults point to growing fragility. Complacency is setting in, raising the risk of asset bubbles as valuations reach historic highs and speculative activity intensifies. Weakened credit standards, higher leverage, and the growth of illiquid investment vehicles are distinct warning signs.

Many market participants have not experienced a full credit cycle, and when the cycle does turn, the adjustment could be sharper than expected. The recent uptick in subprime delinquencies and wholesale market losses suggests the benign environment of recent years may be ending.

Persistent inflationary pressures—driven by rising healthcare costs, food prices, wage growth, and global militarisation—are likely to keep rates elevated. Expectations of imminent rate cuts may be overly optimistic, as the era of ultra-low rates has passed.

Strategic engagement of China

Rising geoeconomic fragmentation is reshaping market dynamics and fuelling inflationary pressures. Constructive engagement with China through multilateral frameworks and partners, rather than unilateral action, can help manage competition and reduce the risk of miscalculation. Dimon noted that China’s industrial strategy has enabled it to secure substantial market share in areas such as rare earth minerals, medical innovation, and intellectual property, offering lessons for other economies navigating a fragmented global landscape.

Stablecoins: Innovation vs. speculation

Digital assets, and stablecoins in particular, have attracted significant attention as vehicles for both innovation and speculation. Dimon observed that while transaction volumes are substantial¹⁰, the majority of stablecoin activity is driven by speculative trading rather than genuine commercial transactions. Despite being pegged to fiat currencies, stablecoins have been linked to risks including fraud, tax evasion, and other illicit activities.

Financial institutions are actively exploring blockchain-based solutions, such as deposit tokens, to improve payment and settlement processes. However, the practical advantages over traditional fiat systems are yet to be proven, while robust regulatory oversight is essential to address the associated risks.

Industry boundaries and competition redefined by AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating the pace of change across the financial sector. Traditional boundaries between industries are blurring, with financial institutions increasingly competing with payment platforms and technology firms. This evolution is transforming business models and raising client expectations. As these lines continue to fade, anticipating and adapting to emerging forms of competition will be critical.

Looking ahead

Dimon emphasised that in an era of rapid shifts and uncertainty, effective leadership is less about predicting the future and more about preparing for a range of possible outcomes. He stressed the value of maintaining flexibility and liquidity, so organisations are ready to act when opportunities emerge.